The month of October was meant to kick-off a bullish season for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP and all other digital assets. The fundamental analysis that had been done by many traders, was that there was a batch of Bitcoin Futures contracts that had expired on the 28th of September on Wall Street. The observation by many, is that the last Friday of every month usually has some expiring BTC futures contracts that would burden BTC to the point of it dropping a few percentage points. October 1st should have been a good day for any trader after their expiration. But it was not.
Another reason that October was meant to be a good one for trading was the fact that the SEC had postponed on ruling on the highly anticipated Bitcoin ETF. The authority sought to get more input from all stakeholders including the American public. The deadline for a decision from the SEC was September 30th, but they made the announcement on the 20th: ten days ahead of time.
But Why Is There No Market Action?
One theory that has been floating around the internet, is that the People’s Republic of China has been on a week long national holiday. According to reliable sources, the country has celebrated their National Day since the Western Jin Dynasty in the early 3rd century. In 2018, this holiday period ran from the 1st of October to the 7th of October.
But Didn’t The Government Ban Crypto Trading?
Yes. The Chinese government has been cracking down on cryptocurrency trading in the country. One report has estimated that the country’s Bitcoin trading volume has decreased tremendously since the ban took effect. The report went on to state that:
The Chinese yuan (RMB) is now utilized in less than 1% of all Bitcoin exchange trades. This 1% figure is a far cry from just one year ago, where the BTC/RMB pair accounted for over 90% of all global trades before the ban fell into place.
Report not Conclusive
It might be true that Bitcoin trading against the Yuan has reduced, but the report does not indicate if the traders in the country, are using other fiat currencies to trade or even buying BTC on a peer-to-peer level. There is also the slight possibility of traders using VPNs (Virtual Private Networks) to trade.
In conclusion, the coincidence between the low Bitcoin (BTC) trading volume and the country of China having a week-long national holiday, is grounds to suspect that the country’s traders make up a majority share of the crypto trading activities. The only way to conclude on this theory, is to wait for the markets to open on Monday, October 8th. If China still holds a major market share, we should see some action when they go back to work after the holiday.
What are your thoughts on the low Bitcoin trading volumes this past week? What do you think caused it? Please let us know in the comment section below.
Disclaimer: This article is not meant to give financial advice. Any opinion herein is purely the author’s and does not represent the opinion of Crypto Crimson or any of its other writers. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the numerous cryptocurrencies available. Thank you.