Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Technical Analysis: Heads Up, Triangle Break!

Bitcoin was previously consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle pattern and just broke below support to signal that further losses are in the cards. From here, price could slide by the same height as the chart formation, which spans $3,300 to $3,900.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to gain traction than to reverse.

However, RSI is indicating oversold conditions and is starting to pull up, which suggests that bullish momentum is about to return. Stochastic is also turning higher to signal a return in buying momentum. A bullish divergence can also be seen as stochastic made higher lows while bitcoin had lower lows.

In that case, price could bounce from here but might hit resistance at the broken triangle bottom. This lines up with the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point, which adds to its strength as a ceiling. A higher bounce could also find resistance at the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point at the top of the triangle.

Bitcoin just can’t seem to shake off the negative vibes dragging it down as it has been reacting more to downbeat updates than positive ones. Buyers can’t seem to keep defending nearby support levels as more and more analysts are weighing in on the bear market, possibly convincing more investors to liquidate.

Bitcoin bull Tom Lee, however, is holding on to his bullish bitcoin forecasts. He predicts that getting a larger share of accounts from the current 50 million in crypto wallets to around 7% of Visa’s 4.5 billion accounts could bring the fair value to $150,000 per coin.

At current levels, he says that the fair value of bitcoin should be at $13,800 to $14,800 based on  the number of active wallet addresses, usage per account, and supply metrics.

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